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Thematic analytical series examining military, intelligence and strategic issues through coordinated multi-part studies.
Latest Intelligence Products
Recent assessments, dossiers and visual intelligence products covering current military, strategic, technical and security developments.
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Russia’s War-Industrial Production Capacity
An assessment of Russian ammunition, missile and UAV output, refurbishment, foreign inputs and the industrial…
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Ukraine’s Integrated Air Defence System
An assessment of Ukraine’s integrated air defence network, hybrid systems, C2 resilience and sustainability under…
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A-50U: Russia’s Modernized Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft
Technical profile of Russia’s A-50U AEW&C aircraft, covering its reported mission systems, surveillance and battle-management…
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Libya as a Regional Hub: Logistics, Projection and Strategic Depth
Special Analysis 4/4 examines Libya’s role in Russia’s military posture as a logistics hub, assessing…
Regional Crisis Watch
| Area | Level | Trend | Short rationale | Updated | What changed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RussiaEastern Europe | Critical | ↑ Worsening— | Russia launched a large ballistic-missile attack on Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions on 21 October; Moscow separately claimed Ukraine sent hundreds of drones toward the capital. Attacks and civilian harm continued despite discussion of renewed US-mediated talks. Critical / Worsening retained. | Updated today | Previous level: Tension Previous trend: → Stable 21–30 October — renewed Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine; Moscow also reported a large Ukrainian drone operation toward the capital. |
| UkraineEastern Europe | Critical | ↑ Worsening— | On 21 October, Russia fired at least 21 ballistic missiles at Kyiv, with strikes and civilian casualties reported across multiple regions. On 29 October, a Russian drone strike on a Dnipro rail platform killed 14, according to Reuters. Attacks on cities and infrastructure continue. Critical / Worsening retained. | Updated today | Previous level: Elevated Crisis Previous trend: Russia continues mixed long-range strike activity involving ballistic missiles and high-speed jet-powered UAVs, compressing Ukrainian air-defence engagement timelines and increasing pressure on scarce high-end interceptors. 21–29 October — Russian missile attacks across Ukraine and a 29 October drone strike on Dnipro’s rail platform that killed 14, according to Reuters. |
| IranMiddle East | Critical | ↑ Worsening— | On 29 October, a Panama-flagged tanker was struck by limpet mines in the Strait of Hormuz; the crew was safe and the vessel resumed its voyage. Maritime sources assessed the method, but the perpetrators were not identified. Repeated attacks and constrained passage sustain Critical / Worsening. | Updated today | Previous level: Elevated Crisis Previous trend: → Stable 29 October — limpet mines struck the tanker Louise 1 in the Strait of Hormuz; no perpetrator was identified. |
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