Lessons from Ukraine, Force Reconstitution and the Post-War Armed Forces
This dossier assesses the military model Russia is likely to build from the operational, technological, organisational and industrial experience of the war against Ukraine. It examines battlefield adaptation, force regeneration, command and control, defence industry and service development, while distinguishing numerical expansion from effective combat capability.
The assessment concludes that Russia is more likely to adapt its existing model selectively than to create a fundamentally new one. By 2030, a hybrid force combining mass, regenerated conventional formations and wider use of UAVs, electronic warfare and precision fires is plausible, constrained by manpower, training, industrial bottlenecks and uneven integration.